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Li Auto Stock Rises After Third-Quarter Sales Surge More Than 200% - Barron's

Courtesy Li Auto

Investors should be pleased with third-quarter numbers from Chinese electric vehicle maker Li Auto . The stock is rising. There isn’t much to complain about from Monday’s results.

U.S.-listed shares of Li Auto rose 8.5% to $35.15 in premarket trading. Shares were up 7.2%, to $34.73, in midmorning trading. The S&P 500 was up 0.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.2%.

Li Auto (ticker: LI) reported adjusted earnings of 3 cents a share from $1.21 billion in sales. Wall Street was looking for a 3-cent loss from $1.13 billion in sales. At this point, earnings are less important than sales for Li. The company is still growing rapidly. Sales in the third quarter rose more than 209% year over year.

“In light of our strong order intake and users’ rising acceptance of smart electric vehicles, we remain as enthusiastic as ever about our growth prospects,” said CEO Xiang Li in the company’s news release. “We will further increase our production capacity through the addition of the Beijing manufacturing base, and consistently expand our sales and servicing network to prepare our business growth.”

The company began construction of a Beijing manufacturing facility in October. The plant is slated to be producing cars in 2023. Today, the company manufactures vehicles at its Changzhou facility.

Looking ahead, Li expects to deliver 30,000 to 32,000 cars in the fourth quarter of the year. Li delivered more than 25,000 vehicles in the third quarter. What’s more, Li delivered 7,649 vehicles in October. That implies deliveries of about 22,000 to 24,000 in November and December—or about 11,500 each month. The company’s best month ever for deliveries was 9,433 delivered in August 2021.

Company management says production capacity is about 14,000 vehicles a month. The global semiconductor shortage has stopped Li from achieving that rate. But management expects to be producing 14,000 to 15,000 vehicles a month sometime in 2022.

It looks as if Monday will be a positive day for the stock. Exactly how shares finish is difficult to say. Over the past year, Li stock has moved about 7%, up or down, following earnings, on average. Options markets imply that the stock will move about 8%, up or down, Monday.

Timing can be everything regarding how a stock might react to quarterly numbers.

Stock in Li peer NIO (NIO) dropped 2.7% after the company reported better-than-expected third-quarter numbers in early November. But its shares were up roughly 20% in the month leading into its report.

XPeng (XPEV) stock jumped 8.4% after reporting better-than-expected numbers on Nov. 23. XPeng shares rose about 7% in the month leading into its post-earnings jump.

Li stock is down about 2% over the past month, coming into Monday trading. That might mean Li can hold on to its gains.

Li stock, so far in 2021, has gained12% year to date, trailing behind the 22% and 14% comparable, respective returns of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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